2017 will be better than you think, with Asia leading the way
(firmenpresse) - HONG KONG, CHINA -- (Marketwired) -- 01/16/17 -- 2017 will be better than you think, according to Deloitte, who today released the first edition of their series. Despite protectionist rhetoric from the US and gloomy forecasts from the IMF, three factors suggest global growth is about to surprise on the upside, with Asia leading the way.
explained that "first, the global economy is finally normalising after a decade of shocks, and a natural healing process is underpinning a more resilient recovery. Second, world trade is already lifting and the benefits of this are spilling into Asia. And third, Asia''s mega-economies of India and China, are increasingly being powered by consumer booms, acting as a stabilising force in their economies and for the region."
Following a series of shocks that began with the global financial crisis and then, in quick succession, the Eurozone debt crisis and the geopolitical shocks in the Middle East, Europe and Asia, the global economy is finally normalising. Deloitte''s report predicts that global growth could in fact accelerate in 2017, with leading indicators already pointing to a lift in world trade. This will begin a virtuous circle in which global growth triggers an upsurge in trade which, in turn, fuels stronger growth. Asia''s major markets of China and India are also powering ahead and growth in most other countries in the region are strengthening, aided by a buoyant US economy.
World trade volumes were damaged by successive crises and shocks in recent years, but leading indicators suggest volumes are ready to lift. Of course, there will still be risks in 2017, the largest of which may be the anticipated depreciation of the Chinese Yuan, which could affect the region''s nascent recovery.
"The continuing devaluation of the Chinese Yuan is necessary, though how the Chinese government manages it will be key. If it''s too aggressive, other Asian currencies may also fall -- which could tempt the incoming US President to follow through on his protectionist rhetoric and hit trade," said .
"Asia is increasingly plugged into China-centric value chains. Any impact on China from yuan devaluation or other policy changes could have a significant knock-on effect on other Asian economies. However, in the long run, most economies in Asia will benefit if China succeeds in rebalancing its economy."
While President-elect Trump is still largely an unknown quantity, his influence on global trade may be overstated. Indicators point to Asian and global trade strengthening, despite the rise of nationalistic and protectionist voices globally.
Asia''s mega-economies, China and India, are increasingly being powered by consumer booms, providing Asia with an additional line of defence if global growth isn''t as good as expected and trade tensions boil over.
commented, "A new and optimistic generation is taking the lead in driving the direction of their economies: one that is technologically savvy, comfortable with the borderless consumerism of the global middle class, and yet imbued with the consumption-smoothing instincts of its parents and grandparents."
The new generation of consumer in Asia will be a stabilising force in their economies, meaning they are likely to play an anchor role for 2017, regardless of other developments.
"Our Voice of Asia report points to a range of reasons for confidence in 2017 -- from growth to trade, culture to commerce -- that underpin Asia''s current and future prosperity. The interdependence of our region reflects what''s possible in the year ahead, also shaping a more positive overall global outlook," said .
For more analysis and details on the Voice of Asia, please visit .
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Deloitte provides audit, consulting, financial advisory, risk advisory, tax and related services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. Deloitte serves four out of five Fortune Global 500® companies through a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries bringing world-class capabilities, insights, and high-quality service to address clients'' most complex business challenges. To learn more about how Deloitte''s approximately 244,400 professionals make an impact that matters, please connect with us on Facebook, LinkedIn, or Twitter.
The Deloitte brand first came to China in 1917 when a Deloitte office was opened in Shanghai. Now the Deloitte China network of firms, backed by the global Deloitte network, deliver a full range of audit, consulting, financial advisory, risk advisory and tax services to local, multinational and growth enterprise clients in China. We have considerable experience in China and have been a significant contributor to the development of China''s accounting standards, taxation system and local professional accountants. To learn more about how Deloitte makes an impact that matters in the China marketplace, please connect with our Deloitte China social media platforms via www2.deloitte.com/cn/en/social-media.
The Voice of Asia series brings to life the challenges and opportunities facing the Asia Pacific region today and tomorrow. There has never been a better time to create a cohesive narrative that reflects the interdependence of the region and provides a glimpse of what''s possible across Asia.
Edition one of the Voice of Asia includes three reports:
- Four things you need to know about Asia in 2017
- Trade to trump protectionists and boost global growth
- Asia''s weapons of mass consumption
This communication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or their related entities (collectively the "Deloitte Network") is by means of this communication, rendering professional advice or services. None of the Deloitte Network shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this communication.
© 2016. For information, contact Deloitte China.
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Datum: 16.01.2017 - 02:17 Uhr
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