Carbon Fiber to Go Mainstream in Automobile by 2025
Light-Weight Carbon-Fiber Reinforced Plastics Will Become Technically and Economically Viable to Carmakers, Dwarfing Current Applications, but Not for 10 More Years, Says Lux Research
(firmenpresse) - BOSTON, MA -- (Marketwired) -- 02/18/15 -- Driven by a faster-than-expected pace of technology development, carbon-fiber reinforced plastics (CFRPs) will be poised to gain widespread adoption for automotive lightweighting by 2025, according to .
Already advances underway in fiber, resin and composite part production will lead to a $6 billion market for automotive CFRPs in 2020, more than double Lux''s earlier projection. Even this figure is dwarfed by the full potential for CFRPs in automotive if they can become affordable enough for use in mainstream vehicles.
"Current trends strongly indicate significant mainstream automotive adoption of CFRPs in the mid-2020s, and companies throughout the value chain must position themselves to take advantage of the coming shifts. However, long-term megatrends towards urbanization, connectivity and automation suggest that there could be a limited time window beyond that for penetrating the automotive space," said Anthony Vicari, Lux Research Associate and the lead author of the report titled, "."
"CFRP developers will have to continue the pace of innovation to overcome the high cost that has so far limited the material to less price-sensitive markets like aerospace and sporting goods," he added.
Lux Research analysts reviewed the technology development in CFRPs, and evaluated its economics to consider its impact on the automotive sector. Among their findings:
The number of direct partnerships between carmakers or Tier-1 automotive suppliers and carbon fiber players has nearly doubled to 11 since 2012. Toray, with partnerships with Plasan Carbon Composites and Magna, has formed the most new relationships and is a major hub.
Using a predictive tool, Lux Research identified a lag of about 18 years between uptick of patent activity and attainment of mainstream commercial adoption milestones. With another major upturn in CFRP patent activity occurring in 2007, large-scale mainstream automotive use is likely by the mid-2020s.
Carbon fiber itself, at $28/kg for standard modulus fiber, represents just 22% of the cost of a final CFRP part. Additional advances are needed to reduce capital, labor, energy, resin and processing costs, which together make up the remaining 78%.
The report, titled "Scaling Up Carbon Fiber: Roadmap to Automotive Adoption," is part of the Lux Research service.
Lux Research provides strategic advice and ongoing intelligence for emerging technologies. Leaders in business, finance and government rely on us to help them make informed strategic decisions. Through our unique research approach focused on primary research and our extensive global network, we deliver insight, connections and competitive advantage to our clients. Visit for more information.
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Datum: 18.02.2015 - 06:30 Uhr
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