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Michigan Retailers Association: Optimistic While Waiting for Final Holiday Numbers

ID: 1068928

(firmenpresse) - LANSING, MI -- (Marketwire) -- 12/28/11 -- Although Michigan Retail Index results for the 2011 holiday shopping season won't be available until January 25, retailers were solidly optimistic from September right up until Christmas that it would turn out to be a good season.

The latest Index showed positive retail industry performance in November, as sales pushed up the Index for the fifth consecutive month to its highest point of the year. The Index is a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

"Michigan retailers went into the season forecasting, on average, a 6 percent gain over last year's holidays," said MRA President and CEO James P. Hallan. "While at the time that figure was more optimistic than most national economists' forecasts, it appears right now that it was an achievable projection. But we'll have to wait and see the final numbers."

The Index gauges the performance of the state's overall retail industry, based on monthly surveys conducted by MRA and the Federal Reserve. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity; the higher the number, the stronger the activity.

The Michigan Retail Index for November found that 49 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 31 percent recorded declines and 20 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 63.2, up from 58.3 in October, 57.9 in September, 55.9 in August and 53.6 in July.

Looking forward, 45 percent of retailers expected sales during December-February to increase over the same period last year, while 18 percent projected a decrease and 37 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 75.8, up from 64.4 in October and 61.4 in September and August.

Nationally, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose 0.2 percent in November.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.





November 2011 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at

Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate October results)





Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate October results)





(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months)





*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.



Contact:
Tom Scott
517.372.5656


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Bereitgestellt von Benutzer: MARKETWIRE
Datum: 28.12.2011 - 08:20 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 1068928
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